Dec 24, 2024, 03:55 PM ET
The NFL spices up Christmas Day with a pair of compelling matchups between AFC powers that have already clinched a spot in the playoffs.
At 1 p.m. ET, the action starts in Pittsburgh, as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, takes on Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers. This Wednesday game will mark the sixth different calendar day that the Chiefs have played on this season, after previously having games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The Steelers are tied for the AFC North lead and will be paying close attention to the game that will follow …
The Baltimore Ravens will head down to Houston to face the Houston Texans, the team that the Ravens eliminated in last season’s divisional round. The Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, have had the Texans’ number recently, outscoring them by an average of 22.8 points in their four meetings since 2019, according to ESPN Research.
Here are the odds, player props, and betting tips for Wednesday’s games.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (opened Chiefs -2.5)
Moneyline: Chiefs (-145), Steelers (+125)
Over/Under: 42.5 (opened 43.5)
First-half spread: Chiefs -0.5 (-110), Steelers +0.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Chiefs (-140), Steelers (+110)
Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chiefs by 3.2 points (55.6% chance to win)
The props
Passing
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Russell Wilson total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -105)
Wilson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +115/Under -155)
Rushing
Najee Harris total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Isiah Pacheco total rushing yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Receiving
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Hollywood Brown total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
The picks
Jaylen Warren longest rush UNDER 11.5 yards (-125)
Daniel Dopp: Warren and the Steelers take on a tough Chiefs run defense on Christmas Day, but rather than look at total rushing yardage, I’m focused on Warren’s longest rush prop. So far this season, the Chiefs have allowed only 10 of the 257 running back rush attempts against them to go over 11 yards. Or, put differently, only 3.8% of rush attempts have hit the line we’re looking for here. Warren, who is known as a pass-catching change-of-pace back in this Steelers offense, has only six rush attempts over 11 yards this season and hasn’t hit this line in three of his past four games.
This could be a grind-it-out game between Kansas City and Pittsburgh, but I’m still expecting Najee Harris to have the majority of the ground game touches in this backfield. Warren’s elusiveness always gives him a chance to break away for a big gain, but more often than not, that’ll come as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, which is why I’m taking the under on this prop.
Hollywood Brown OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-125)
Liz Loza: Xavier Worthy has been a focal point as of late, drawing double-digit targets in back-to-back games. But don’t sleep on Brown, who shook off rust in a major way and in his 2024 debut versus the Houston Texans in Week 16. The speedster ranked second on the team in targets, converting five of eight looks for 45 yards, including a 20-yard grab.
Worthy’s emergence figures to make him more of a priority for the Steelers’ secondary. That should open up the field for Brown, who drew 20 deep looks over 14 games in 2023. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s defense has been both banged up and generous of late, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to WRs over the last four weeks. While Donte Jackson is expected to return, Joey Porter Jr. figures to be sidelined. Brown is likely to take full advantage.
Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Game lines
Spread: Ravens -4 (opened Ravens -3.5)
Moneyline: Ravens (-200), Texans (+170)
Over/Under: 46.5 (opened 47.5)
First-half spread: Ravens -2.5 (-125), Texans +2.5 (+102)
First-half moneyline: Ravens (-180), Texans (+140)
Ravens total points: 25.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Texans total points:20.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Ravens by 4.9 points (63.7% chance to win)
The props
Passing
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -165/Under +125)
C.J. Stroud total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -160)
Rushing
Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Lamar Jackson total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Receiving
Nico Collins total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
The picks
Mark Andrews OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: Andrews has made his presence most felt in the red area, nabbing scores in four straight. He hasn’t just been an end zone hero, though, drawing at least five looks in four of his past five games. While he has registered only 40 receiving yards in two of those efforts, his chances of hitting the over are solid, given the matchup.
The Texans’ defense has suffered some big losses, including safety Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Houston was dealt another blow in Week 16 when safety Jimmie Ward exited with a foot injury. As such, Andrews figures to remain a focal point for the offense, likely managing four grabs for around 45 receiving yards.
Nico Collins longest reception OVER 27.5 yards (-120)
Dopp: When healthy, Collins has been awesome. He is a big play waiting to happen on every snap, and that should be on display during the Christmas Day game against the Ravens. Collins has a reception of at least 26 yards in all but one game this season. He has hit this specific line in eight of his 10 games this season, including five of his last six.
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With no Tank Dell for the rest of the season (we’re sending Tank all of our positive vibes, prayers and good mojo during his recovery), Collins will be the focal point in this passing game and is in a nice spot to have a deep completion in Week 17. And this is a pretty soft pass defense Collins is facing in Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed wide receivers 17 completions of at least 28 yards this season, tied for the seventh most and only four fewer than the most in the NFL (the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have allowed 21). I’m expecting Nico to keep doing Nico things here on Christmas Day.
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