2m agoWith US tariffs at effectively 104% for Chinese imports and the promised retaliation from China, trade between the two countries would collapse.

China’s shipments to the US will more than halve in the next few years if tariffs stay where they are — and that’s assuming the yuan weakening to 8.00/USD, according to Capital Economics. Analysts there assume that while US rates on other nations will get negotiated down to 10-20%, they’ll likely stay high on China, permanently upending trade between the two countries:

“China’s leadership doesn’t seem to be in any rush to make a deal. They appear to have concluded that they can afford to weather the impact of US tariffs and that Trump will be in a weakened position further down the line as the economic and political fallout from the tariffs mounts.”

Katia DmitrievaAsia Economics Correspondent