Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 season on Friday and is expected to pass north of the Caribbean Islands on Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Threat level: Erin could become a Category 4 hurricane over the weekend if it continues to rapidly strengthen as expected, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- Erin is currently a Category 1 hurricane, according to an NHC spokesperson. Erin has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and is forecast to eventually become a major hurricane (wind gusts above 111 mph.)
- The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to “considerable” flash flooding, landslides or mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands.
- The threat level to the East Coast of the U.S. is decreasing, but there is still a “significant risk” the storm could cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in the next week.
Data: NOAA; Map: Axios Visuals
State of play: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal in May, and updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 in early August.
- That includes five to nine storms that could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater,) including two to five major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
Zoom out: The higher than normal season comes alongside the Trump administration causing major shakeups to NOAA’s weather and climate forecasting abilities.
- Shortly after taking office, Trump fired hundreds of agency employees, including some with highly-specialized skill sets.
- In July, Axios reviewed additional plans to cut federal research efforts and spending that specifically targeted climate change.
- The administration also shocked the meteorology world when it announced it would by suspending the distribution of vital hurricane forecasting satellite data in June. The agency changed course in late July, and now plans to maintain distributing that data.
Go deeper: New NOAA document spells out further deep Trump cuts
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with the latest hurricane categorization and a hurricane tracker.
