Monday through Friday brought us 66 total college basketball games. Saturday brings us 84. Games are spread throughout the day, but as is my policy with the article, I don’t handicap games that might be released as bets until the 4 or 5 p.m. ET window, depending on how early I can get started with the card and the write-ups.
That does eliminate a good number of games today, as there are a lot of day games, but betting opportunities are always going to exist with this kind of volume.
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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
5 p.m. ET
A neutral-site tilt between Providence and St. Bonaventure starts things off in that 5 p.m. ET window. Providence has played three games with star Bryce Hopkins back and they’ve gone 2-1 with a resounding win over BYU and a close conference road win over DePaul in a game where they were the underdog.
The Friars have played a really tough schedule over the last six games, playing a lot of top-100 teams. Providence has already played five Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 2 games. St. Bonaventure has played two, as the Bonnies have played a far weaker schedule to this point.
I don’t love the statistical profile for St. Bonaventure. Their 55.6% 2P% is driven by rim production against weaker teams and mid-range jump-shooting. They’re shooting 42.5% on Close Twos with a 27.1% shot share, which is much higher than I’d like to see. For a team that ranks 216th in 3P%, I don’t think their true talent level on jumpers can sustain that high of a percentage. And, as they play better teams, like tonight, I’d expect their shot share (35.8%) and FG% (65.5%) on Close Twos to drop off. St. Bonaventure has played the 288th-ranked schedule per Torvik and 308th per KenPom using Net Rating.
Providence loves to fire away from 3, taking one on 49% of their shot attempts. That does make them a bit of a high-variance team given the low number of possessions that they play with on a nightly basis, but Hopkins is a slasher who can create some better looks and also some more opportunities at the rim.
The Friars have the advantage on the glass in both areas in this game and they also have a shot share against on Close Twos of 33%, while holding opponents to just 52.2% on those types of attempts. I think they’ll control the interior here and the 3-point shooting has the chance to improve as we go forward.
It was also reported this morning that St. Bonaventure PG Dasonte Brown is out. He’s averaged 11.3 PPG and 3.8 APG.
Pick: Providence -3
6 p.m. ET
Digging deep down the board for this one, as Saint Francis (PA) and Niagara get together in Western New York. These are two bad basketball teams, but there are several reasons why I like Niagara in this game.
First, let’s start with the context clues in the betting market. This is not a game that recreational bettors are interested in and we haven’t seen a line move towards the visitors, even though their strength of schedule is much better per Torvik and dramatically better per KenPom. We see a lot of SOS-induced line movement at this time of the year and we’re not getting that here.
Second, these are two pretty bad defensive teams, but Niagara is at home. These two teams love to chuck from 3, as the Purple Eagles have a 46.3% 3P Rate that ranks 54th in the nation and Saint Francis has a 43.8% 3P Rate that ranks 87th. In a game that will see a lot of 3-point shooting, I’ll prioritize the home team, especially since Saint Francis hasn’t faced a D-I opponent since December 1.
Third, opponents are shooting 65% on Close Twos against the Red Flash. The strength of opponent may have something to do with that, but I do believe Niagara can have success getting to the interior if they do. Saint Francis might get guard Ace Talbert or big man Valentino Pinedo back here. I couldn’t find any updates, but even if they do, those two guys haven’t played in a while. Pinedo is easily SFU’s best rebounder.
Finally, Niagara is about a 75% free throw shooting team. If they are ahead late, I think they can salt this one away at the stripe.
Pick: Niagara -4
8 p.m. ET
Bowling Green takes on UMKC in a battle of teams that have had underwhelming seasons to this point. BG is just 4-5 after their first 20-win season since 2020 last year. Now second-year head coach Todd Simon seems to be trying to work out his rotations, but I think he’s close. Central Michigan transfer Derrick Butler just dropped 35 against Morgan State and has scored at least 15 points in five straight games. JUCO transfer Javontae Campbell is averaging over 15 PPG and has generated a lot of extra possessions with 3.1 steals per game. Another JUCO transfer, Marcus Johnson, has scored 19+ points in four of the nine games so far.
Simon’s Falcons were fifth in shot share on Close Twos at 47.7% last season. They are at 42.6% this season, so they aren’t at last year’s level yet, but they’re getting there. UMKC has allowed opponents to shoot 70.5% on Close Twos this season, which ranks 358th out of 364 Division I teams.
Meanwhile, UMKC’s 22.2% shot share on Close Twos is the lowest rate in the nation. I really believe BG has a massive advantage in both attempts and efficiency at the rim in this game. The Roos shoot a ton of 3s because they really have no semblance of an offense, and they are only shooting 29.5% on those attempts.
Bowling Green should win the turnover battle here and absolutely win the shot selection battle, as UMKC doesn’t get to the rim and has allowed opponents to shoot nearly 61% on 2s.
Pick: Bowling Green +3.5
