Check out our UFC Tampa predictions for the Saturday, December 14, event in Tampa, Florida, with prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT). The entire card airs on ESPN+, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend’s 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and have found plenty of value on the last card of the year.
So, where should you look to place your UFC bets? Our crew has pinpointed four picks on the Buckley vs. Covington fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo’s projections, below.
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UFC Tampa Best Bets
Billy Ward: Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
Piera Rodriguez opens the final card of 2024 as a roughly two-to-one underdog – and she’s one of my favorite bets of the year.
Not necessarily because I’m particularly confident she’ll win, but because she checks so many boxes against Josefine Knutsson.
Depending on the sports book, this fight is between -400 and -450 to see the judges. We’ve had issues with some weird scores in Florida in the past, so we already have some “bad judging” equity on the underdog.
Especially considering Rodriguez has a big grappling edge here. Knutsson is a former kickboxer and was taken down thrice by Julia Polastri in her last fight. Rodriguez averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. A takedown can be enough to sway some judges in otherwise close rounds.
Rodriguez is also coming off a loss in which she dominated the fight. She won the first round on every judge’s card, then landed a knockdown in the second – before getting herself disqualified for headbutts. While it goes on the record as a loss, she was clearly the better fighter, which is why I highlighted her in my Luck Ratings earlier this week.
Plus, given how infrequently rule-breaking faces any consequences in MMA, I don’t mind being on the side of the cheater. Getting disqualified isn’t ideal – but it at least shows you’re trying.
I’d take Rodriguez down to +175.
The Pick: Piera Rodriguez +205 (Caesars)
Sean Zerillo: Fernando Padilla vs. Sean Woodson
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Sean Woodson won’t enjoy his typical size advantage on Saturday; the enormous Feathweight (6’2 “, 78” reach) is only an inch taller, with a two-inch reach advantage over Fernando Padilla.
Woodson’s two most strenuous UFC bouts have come against the two largest opponents that he’s previously faced, Julian Erosa (6’1 “, 74″ reach) and Luis Saldana (5’11”, 73″ reach); Padilla (6’1″, 76″ reach) is an even bigger test.
Padilla should land the more powerful and damaging strikes, potentially swaying the judges in otherwise close rounds against Woodson’s speed and output.
The betting market views the fighters as relatively equal knockout threats but gives Padilla a substantially higher chance of winning via submission and more overall finishing upside.
Woodson is the more consistent minute-winner, and the betting market expects the fight to reach the scorecards (-200 consensus to go to a decision); however, I project value on the under or inside the distance prop (projected -156 to reach a decision, +156 to end inside the distance), which correlates with both Padilla’s moneyline (projected +112, listed +135) and his finish prop (projected +286, listed +300.
Bet the underdog to +120, play the ends inside the distance, or don’t go to the decision prop to +160, and consider Padilla inside the distance at +300 or higher (either as a straight bet or a round-robin piece).
The Pick: Fernando Padilla (+135 at Caesars) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+160 at Caesars)
Tony Sartori: Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
In the Michael Johnson (-225) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+175) featured prelim bout, the steam is on the favorite. Johnson opened at -200 before being bet up to his current -225 price, and I agree with the steam.
A key reason that this fight opened with closer odds is that Johnson is only 3-6 over his past nine bouts. However, that just gives us a good buy-low opportunity on a fighter who is simply on a higher level than Azaitar.
Johnson is one of the most seasoned veterans in the UFC, having been in the promotion for 14 years and 29 fights. He’s been in the cage with some of the best 155-pound fighters of this generation, which provides an advantage against Azaitar, who is just 2-2 through four bouts in the UFC.
Those two wins came against Khama Worthy and Teemu Packalen, two guys who haven’t even fought in this promotion in over three years.
Johnson is the better striker and grappler, with Azaitar’s power being the only concern. We should be in store for a knockout in this fight, given that both fighters stand-and-bang with power and oddsmakers favor the fight ending inside the distance, with odds listed at -200 or longer.
While Azaitar’s power could get it done, it is far more likely that Johnson is the one to finish the fight. Azaitar’s striking defense needs improvement, which is why each of his past two losses have come by knockout.
If Johnson can knock out Poirier, he can knock out Azaitar.
The Pick: Michael Johnson by KO/TKO +145 (FanDuel/BetRivers)
Bryan Fonseca: Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:45 a.m. ET
Joaquin Buckley knocked out Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in fairly surprising fashion when we last saw him two months ago. Now, it wasn’t an upset, but Thompson had only been stopped once and had the potential to be a stylistic problem in testing Buckley. Wonderboy had gotten fairly recent wins in that spot before, but Buckley kept his win streak going, which stands at five fights coming into Saturday.
And, although he’s the “B side” he’s a better than 2-1 moneyline favorite against Colby Covington. Covington’s last fight was a world title shot last December, where he was outpointed by then-champion Leon Edwards. Buckley will be fighting his fourth fight since Covington’s last.
Additionally, Covington has only fought twice since March 2022 — Buckley has competed in eight bouts since. He has four stoppages in that span and 14 overall across 20 wins in MMA.
He’s explosive, he’s in form, and he’s getting a juicy +165 to stop Covington on FanDuel, with five rounds to do it. Covington could make this a dangerous bout if he survives beyond Round 3. Covington has miles, which includes seven straight bouts that have gone to Round 5, and his cardio is still an advantage at 36.
Buckley hasn’t seen Rounds 4 or 5 in his career, so to me, the explosion can wear if he doesn’t get this early. Still, I like him to win the bout, but based on history and styles, I think it’s better to take Buckley by stoppage early if you want it at all.
The Pick: Joaquin Buckley in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +210 (FanDuel)
