Several weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons were in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had lost four straight games and several key players to injuries, while the Falcons were rolling.
Now, Atlanta has lost four straight games and Tampa Bay has won four straight, so the Bucs own sole possession of the division.
What do the Buccaneers ‘ playoff chances look like with their dominant Week 15 victory over the Chargers? Let’s take a look with the help of the PFN Playoff Predictor.
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Buccaneers Playoff Situation | Week 15 Update
NFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Rams defeated 49ers, 12-6
- Commanders defeated Saints, 20-19
- Cowboys defeated Panthers, 30-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Cardinals defeated Patriots, 30-17
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Packers defeated Seahawks, 30-13
After the Saints’ loss to the Commanders and Tampa’s victory over the Chargers, the Buccaneers’ chances of winning the NFC South were 83.1%.
The Buccaneers were unable to clinch a playoff berth this week, as the NFC South race remains tight, and they aren’t close to securing a Wild Card berth.
At 8-6, the Bucs’ most likely path into the postseason is as the fourth seed (51% odds), the third seed (31.4%), or the seventh seed (2.8%), depending on whether they win the NFC South or find a way to sneak in as a Wild Card team.
The Buccaneers’ path, for them, is easy — win, and they secure the NFC South Division title. The Falcons, who play Monday night against the Raiders, are 6-7, while the Saints are 5-9 and have an outside chance of stealing the division crown if things go sideways for Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
PFN’s model currently gives the Bucs an 83.1% chance of winning the division, while the Falcons have just a 16% chance. However, if Atlanta wins on Monday night, the Bucs will only lead them by one game, and Atlanta holds the tiebreaker after sweeping the season series, so this race will likely come down to the wire.
It’s worth noting that Atlanta has the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule (at Raiders vs. Giants at Commanders vs. Panthers), while the Buccaneers have the fifth-easiest schedule (at Cowboys vs. Panthers vs. Saints).
This week’s road matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers was easily Tampa Bay’s toughest remaining game. It was important for them to win because the Falcons could steal the division if they won out, and the Bucs finished the year 3-1.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, where you can choose who will win the remaining NFL games to see your ideal playoff picture and how it differs from the current NFL playoff bracket.
