Here’s what I wrote earlier this week if you’re looking to make a fun wager on today’s game:

The weather could have an impact here; the current forecast has temperatures in the low-30s with snow possible. That’s a bit concerning, but the more I look at the matchup, the more I feel like we’re going to see a shootout.

Penn State’s offense has been one of the most explosive offenses in the country (16.1% explosive play rate, 5th nationally) and can put points on the board in a hurry. Tight end Tyler Warren is a matchup nightmare that I’m not sure SMU has an answer for, and he should have a big game. While I worry a little about backup QB Beau Pribula leaving the team because of his impact in certain situations, his absence will be felt more down the road should Penn State advance. With or without him, Penn State should have plenty of success on the ground.

Don’t get me wrong, SMU’s defensive front was better than expected, but it wasn’t nearly as dominant against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and this Penn State offensive line may be the best it has seen all year.

On the other side, Penn State has a phenomenal defense, but if there’s a weak spot, it’s that it is prone to giving up big plays (it ranks 50th in explosive play rate allowed). I can see SMU hitting big plays to get itself in scoring position, and the wild card is Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings. Looking at Penn State’s schedule, I don’t know if there’s a QB they’ve seen this season with Jennings’ skill set. Yes, the Nittany Lions have seen mobile QBs, but nobody with the overall athleticism as Jennings. His ability to evade pressure and pick up first downs with his legs to keep drives alive will be critical in this game. In the end, I have Penn State winning, but I’m more confident in the winner needing to score at least 30 points. The Pick: Over 52.5