Well it was fun to dream.

The Seattle Seahawks had an upset win in their hands against the Minnesota Vikings and threw it away. A costly penalty and a bad defensive breakdown turned a 24-20 lead into a 27-24 loss. The Seahawks are now staring down Week 18 being meaningless if they lose to the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals. This is shaping up to be a hefty collapse and a disappointing end to a rollercoaster season.

At least they finally looked like they belonged against one of the NFL’s best to some degree. We’ve so infrequently seen that this season.

It’s time for Winners and Losers. I’ve been Field Gulls’ lead editor for five seasons and these are exceedingly less fun to do when I have to talk about the same stuff over and over again regardless of coaching or the roster.

Winners

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

He’s the best receiver on the team. Sorry, but DK Metcalf doesn’t get that moniker anymore. I’ve held off on WR1a and WR1b but 1b isn’t getting WR1 target share or efficiency. The Seahawks have someone who’s worked on his early-career issues with drops to be the most surehanded volume target on the roster. He doesn’t have game-breaking speed but knows how to get open against man and zone coverages. His ability to move fluidly in the open field makes him a yards after catch option. Really the only thing he’s not prolific at (yet) is making contested jumping catches in 1-on-1 situations.

JSN had 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown, bringing him up to 93 catches for 1,079 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season. He’s on the cusp of setting franchise records for receptions and yards, and the receptions one could be broken in the 16th game for anyone who wants to slap a “17th game” asterisk.

JSN has the best hands, he’s the best route runner, he’s the best tackle breaker, and he’s made an incredible leap to being the team’s best receiver. And he should’ve had two DPIs called in his favor.

AJ Barner

He should’ve had a winning touchdown on a difficult grab in the back of the end zone. Alas, it didn’t happen. That’s still a terrific and clutch play from the rookie tight end, who had some issues again as a blocker this afternoon but keeps impressing as a receiving option. It’s time for him to be TE1 next season, because despite Noah Fant’s solid game today I do not anticipate nor see a reason for him to be on the 2025 roster.

Jarran Reed

I probably have not put Jarran in the Winners column enough for an otherwise solid season. He recorded a sack, two quarterback hits, and batted away a pass to prevent a likely third down conversion. Reed was also valuable in stopping the run. The veteran defensive tackle has been consistently productive all season.

Josh Jobe

Jobe has developed into a better corner than Tre Brown. Not everyone is going to be an All-Pro level player and we shouldn’t expected elite play from everyone who ever takes a snap. With that said, the former Alabama corner has gone from practice squad fodder to a starter who can hold up in coverage against some of the best in the business. I also like how aggressive he is as a tackler.

Losers

Ryan Grubb

Do I praise Grubb for having a reasonably effective passing game on a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the business? Sure. But it was a boom-or-bust afternoon all day for Seattle’s offense.

Geno Smith is playing on an injured knee. The Seahawks were never down by more than 10 points in the game. They had 46 designed dropbacks to 13 runs when you take out Julian Love’s fake punt up the middle. Seattle made zero effort to even try to commit to a run game and as usual seldom used play action.

The offensive line generally held up in pass protection in ways I did not see coming, so he doesn’t have that excuse this time. It was still a disjointed showing for prolonged stretches and Grubb makes life as difficult for his quarterbacks as humanly possible. This isn’t college where you get to enjoy a gigantic talent advantage most weeks of the year and the rules are heavily tilted toward the offense even more than they are in the pros.

I do not see a path for him back on the staff next season, and that’s more than just my opinion I’m basing that on. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off and there’s a reason why offensive coordinators with zero prior NFL experience have historically never been a thing.

No sequence pissed me off more than him calling a Ken Walker screen on a fake toss to DK Metcalf (as if any NFL defense is falling for that foolishness) on 1st and 5. He really wouldn’t run the ball there?! Seattle lost 12 yards and punted.

Tre Brown

What an asinine penalty to commit. Lining up offside when you’re not even blitzing? He was so far offside he might as well have been behind Sam Darnold himself. Then he gives up a touchdown to Justin Jefferson on the next snap. Just a terrible two-play sequence that upgraded 3 points to 7 points. With Josh Jobe looking promising and under contract beyond this year, Brown’s days as a Seahawk are over whenever this season ends.

Julian Love and Riq Woolen

That’s an inexcusable touchdown to give up from an otherwise good safety. You can’t get beat over the top in Cover 2 and that’s exactly what happened. Riq Woolen passes off Jefferson to Love while there’s really nothing else to deal with other than maybe an Aaron Jones checkdown. Then Woolen leisurely jogs back while Love can’t get to the throw on time. Game, season, defensive breakdown from supposedly two of your best players in the back seven. That’s a miss from Love against someone who needs full attention at all times.

Regardless of Woolen’s fault level on that particular play (which I don’t think is a whole lot upon rewatch), he is still a loser separately for getting benched on the opening drive. Two years in a row with two different coaches in must-win home games in December is not the slightest bit encouraging. Woolen actually played well and had three passes defensed but I absolutely will not put it past the Seahawks to have his future with the team in question if things aren’t cleaned up next offseason.

Byron Murphy II

Critical face mask penalty and unfortunately, the refs saw it. Sam Darnold has been unlucky to not have that called in games against the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts, but the refs were on top of Murphy’s pivotal mistake right before the Jefferson touchdown. It’s bad luck more than anything but it’s a play emblematic of Seattle’s inability to get out of its own way.

Team discipline

This is probably a Mike Macdonald stat but the players still gotta figure their shit out. The Seahawks committed 11 accepted penalties and virtually all of them were justified except that Leonard Williams “hold” on defense. We’re in Week 16 and experienced offensive linemen are still regularly committing drive-killing false starts.

Sloppy football gets you beat, and when you get penalized a lot and in untimely situations you will lose. Going -2 in turnovers doesn’t help, speaking of which…

Geno Smith

I wouldn’t have put him on here if the defense did their damn job and closed the game out. He’d have had his signature game-winning drive against what has to be considered a Super Bowl contender. Smith threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns while making some big plays against a tough defense that leads the NFL in takeaways.

But the turnovers. I’m leaving aside the game-ending pick because it was still a low probability that they would get into field goal range in under a minute with no timeouts left. It appears as if the whole operation was busted thanks to Olu Oluwatimi getting turnstiled, more so than whatever decision Geno made and the route DK Metcalf was supposed to run/didn’t run/actually ran.

The first interception was unacceptable. Throw the god damn ball away. That ended up being a 3-point turnover in a game they lost by 3, much in the way Tre Brown’s penalty turned a 3-point play into 7. I think Geno has been put in a horrendous circumstance with this offensive coordinator, lack of a run game, and an offensive line that has generally been bad all season. He also can’t be an accelerant when the house is already on fire.

Incidentally, taking a sack in field goal range on the penultimate drive was bad. He was sacked only twice and he picked a hell of a time to give one up. That’s happened a lot this season and while throwing the ball away in the pocket is hard, it’s not impossible.

I’d say the biggest problem with Smith’s 2024 is not the total turnovers—note I said turnovers, because he’s oddly yet to lose a fumble this year so his 15 INTs are all the turnovers—but the context of those turnovers. Multiple red zone interceptions, including maybe the single most damaging play of the entire season when Kam Kinchens pick-sixed him in the Los Angeles Rams game. Multiple picks in his own territory throwing it directly to a defender when the ball should’ve been thrown away.

I believe Geno Smith is a good quarterback (who’s been better than the TD-INT ratio suggests) in a sub-optimal situation. I’m also not so much of a Geno fan that I think that at 35 years old he’s going to be an MVP contender any time soon. He’s most likely the best option for 2025 because of the perceived weakness of this QB class and the lack of notable QBs on the free agent market (assuming Sam Darnold secures a bag from Minnesota). No, Russell Wilson isn’t coming back and certainly not on a cheap deal.

However, the Seahawks would be short-sighted to not think long-term at quarterback. And not 2-3 years long-term. I’m talking 10+ years. Geno won’t be a long-term answer just on age alone, and the idea that he’ll still be a high-level QB at 37 or 38 years old is nuts almost entirely because that area is reserved for HOF level players. At best, a Geno extension needs to be 1-2 years maximum and as team-friendly as his current deal.

Finding Geno’s successor is probably not happening with this 2025 class, but the perspective of wanting a young QB is not crazy. Would I want that QB to be thrown into the fire if this offensive line is still bad? No. But would I be against Seattle drafting a QB next year? Absolutely not.

Final Notes

• Kenneth Walker III is hurt again after getting bent backward late in the fourth quarter. He had 8 catches for 28 yards which is staggeringly ineffective. Walker didn’t get the ball enough on run plays and had way too many targets in the passing game. And whenever he plays again, please run forward when you have open space.
• DK Metcalf is a very good receiver. At some point his “gravity” needs to come with the productivity of an elite receiver, which I do not think he is. Deep passes in 1-on-1? He’s amazing. I think his hands are improved and he hasn’t committed a penalty since Week 4. But his weaknesses with route running, hands catching, freelancing when he shouldn’t, and generally not being a very smooth athlete are clearly defined and prevent him from ever sniffing the Jefferson, Chase, A.J. Brown, etc. category. His contract negotiations will be fascinating in 2025 because should a very good receiver get top of the line money?
• I am assuming Zach Charbonnet’s oblique issue is why he had limited touches and why Kenny McIntosh had a few touches.
• Jason Myers really can’t be dinged for missing a 60-yard field goal outdoors in damp conditions. Myers has a strong leg but he’s not Brandon Aubrey. There was no right or wrong decision to me as far as kicking a 60-yarder vs. going for it on 4th and 15.
• This loss stung because the Lumen Field crowd was lively, the Seahawks were close to winning against one of the NFL’s best and their playoff chances probably went up in smoke. I can see the optimistic view of how much young talent is on the roster on both sides of the ball. Mike Macdonald looks like he’s a good coach and the defense isn’t an embarrassment to watch. But the other side of this argument is the uncertainty surrounding the offensive line, the quarterback conundrum for 2025 and beyond, and decisions to make concerning the 2022 draft picks. Seattle has a clear floor, but there are too many things happening with this team that have me deeply uncertain about how high the Seahawks’ ceiling will be.
• Seattle can only control what it can control, which means beating the Chicago Bears, and if by any chance the Seahawks lose that game I wonder how the mood of the fanbase will look compared to finishing 10-7 but missing out on tiebreakers. I do know that I’ll be a massive Arizona Cardinals fan on Saturday.