What an incredibly weird fantasy football semi-finals week we had. Jalen Hurts got hurt at the very beginning of a huge game and was unable to come back. Only five defenses scored in double digits, so we had defenses that finished with just seven points land inside the top 10 which wound up being a good think for our rankings. All of the top three scoring defenses (Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Green Bay) were in the top 10, but I was clearly too low on Atlanta putting them at 9th. Drew Lock was intent on giving them fantasy points.
With the fantasy football finals this week, a team’s motivation is the most important factor. We have no idea what kind of effort we’re going to get or who’s going to play through the usual bumps and bruises; however, if a team really needs to win a game for playoff seeding or just to get into the dance to begin with then we can make a fair assumption that we’re going to get their best effort. As a result, I’m always going to side with teams who have something to play for if the rankings are close.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 16: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 89-71 (55.6%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 17?
WEEK 17
Rank
Tier One DSTs
Opponent
BOD
RANKING
1
Seattle Seahawks
at CHI
11
2
Indianapolis Colts
at NYG
13
3
Miami Dolphins
at CLE
28
The Seahawks’ defense has averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and comes into this game against the Bears in a clear “must-win” spot if they want to lock in a playoff spot. Over those same six weeks, they rank 2nd in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate and 6th in EPA per play, and I think they can take advantage of a Bears offense that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points over the last month and lost both their starting left tackle and left guard to injuries on Sunday.
The Colts crushed me in Week 16. I had them as a tier two defense when the 1 pm games started, and they cruised out to a 38-7 lead with five minutes to go in the third quarter. They were sitting at 15 fantasy points and looking like a smash play. Then, they sat a lot of their offensive starters, took their foot off the gas, and watched as the Titans scored 23 unanswered points. The Colts held on to win the game but finished with just six fantasy points and crushed my soul. Considering they’re still fighting for a playoff spot, I expect that to be a significant wake-up call as they head into a showdown with a Giants offense that looked awful against the Falcons on Sunday. Yes, Tim Boyle may make fewer mistakes if he’s starting over Drew Lock, but the Colts rank 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 4th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 9th in EPA per play over the last six weeks, so I’m going to trust them again.
The Dolphins have not been a great defense over the last six weeks, averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game while ranking 12th in pass rush productivity rate and 14th in EPA per play. That’s not an entirely enticing profile, but they do face a Browns offense led by Dorian Thompson-Robinson that allowed a poor Cincinnati defense to score 18 fantasy points on Sunday. The Browns have given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, and I don’t see that changing now. Miami still has an outside shot at the playoffs, so you know they’ll come to play, and that matters in Week 17.
Rank
Tier Two DSTs
BOD
RANKING
4
Los Angeles Chargers
at NE
16
5
Buffalo Bills
vs NYJ
19
6
Kansas City Chiefs
at PIT
10
7
Dallas Cowboys
at PHI
5
The Chargers defense has been pretty poor over the last few weeks, there’s really no way around that; however, this time of the season is all about motivation, and the Chargers have plenty of that while the Patriots have none. The Patriots allow the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and allowed a banged-up Bills defense to score 14 fantasy points last week. I don’t have any fancy stats for you on this one, but it just feels like a safe bet to play the Chargers this week.
It’s hard to know where to rank the Bills right now because they played Week 16 without Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Matt Milano, and DeWayne Carter. They have the second seed in the AFC all but locked up and could even decide to rest some of those guys even more depending on how the Chiefs-Steelers game shakes out. The questionable motivation puts a bit of a damper on a team that ranks 2nd in tackles for a loss or no gain per game and 5th in the NFL in turnover rate over the last six weeks and faces a Jets offense that allows the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month but did just lose their starting left tackle Olu Fashanu for the season. Given how immobile Aaron Rodgers is, that’s not a great loss.
I know it might be surprising to rank the Chiefs’ defense over the Steelers, but this game really sets up better for a Chiefs defense that ranks rank 7th in pass rush productivity rate, 8th in the NFL in turnover rate, and 10th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks. That has led to 6.8 fantasy points per game, but the Steelers have been struggling a bit on offense and will be without their starting left tackle DJ Humphries. Of course, Chris Jones is also questionable for the Chiefs and George Pickens could return to play on Christmas Day, so I’ll be watching those two names closely.
The Eagles and Cowboys are both defenses we have been using in fantasy for years now, and both have been surging of late, but it’s the Cowboys who find themselves in a better spot if Jalen Hurts is unable to make it back from the concussion he suffered on Sunday. Yes, the Eagles are playing for seeding, but they also want Hurts healthy for the playoffs, so there’s a good chance we see Kenny Pickett under center this weekend, and I like that for a Cowboys defense that ranks 4th in pass rush productivity rate, 8th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, and 8th in EPA per play over the last six weeks. However, if Hurts does play, we’re moving the Cowboys down towards the bottom of tier three.
Rank
Tier Three DSTs
BOD
RANKING
8
Denver Broncos
at CIN
2
9
Green Bay Packers
at MIN
8
10
Tampa Bay Bucs
vs CAR
12
11
Philadelphia Eagles
vs DAL
1
12
Las Vegas Raiders
at NO
30
13
Pittsburgh Steelers
vs KC
4
14
Baltimore Ravens
at HOU
20
15
New Orleans Saints
vs LV
15
16
Atlanta Falcons
at WAS
24
17
Cincinnati Bengals
vs DEN
23
18
Washington Commanders
vs ATL
14
The Broncos let us down in the fantasy semi-finals and are in for another tough divisional game, but over the last six weeks, the Bengals have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and lost starting right tackle Amarius Mims in Sunday’s game against the Browns. Meanwhile, over the last six weeks, the Broncos rank 1st in pass rush productivity rate, 2nd in EPA per play, which is a PFF stat to highlight the “Expected Points Added” by a defense on every play, 3rd in the NFL in turnover rate, 4th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, and 5th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. They should get starting cornerback Riley Moss back on Sunday and are in a “must-win” game, so I expect the defense to show up in Week 17.
The Packers are 5th in football with 10 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Apart from last night, they also haven’t been relying on one or two huge games like teams like the Falcons have. Over that span, they rank 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in pass rush productivity rate, 6th in EPA per play, and 10th in turnover rate. They would be much higher if it wasn’t for a tough matchup against the Vikings; however, we have seen Sam Darnold have some bad games against good pressure, so I think the Packers could still sneak into the top 10 here if you find yourself without any better options.
The Bucs failed to deliver against the Cowboys in a crucial Sunday night football game, but even after that performance, they rank 1st in EPA per play, 3rd in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, and 5th in pass rush productivity rate over the last six weeks. That has led to a solid but not spectacular 6.4 fantasy points per game. The Panthers have not been a good matchup for opposing defenses over the last two months, apart from their meltdown against the Cowboys two weeks ago, so this isn’t a great spot for the Bucs, but they have motivation on their side and have been playing better defense of late, so I can see rolling them out in most formats if you’re hurting for options.
The Eagles blew a huge game last weekend and their defense got lit up, but they also scored eight fantasy points because of the turnovers they forced, and that’s why this defense has such a safe floor. Over the last six weeks, they rank 2nd in pass rush productivity rate, 5th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in EPA per play, and 9th in the NFL in turnover rate. However, they have only scored double-digit points twice this season, so you’re really playing them for floor, not ceiling, and the Cowboys have not been a good matchup lately, allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. I know you’re going to say, “Their opponents sucked,” and that’s true, but Cooper Rush has proven himself to be a solid game-manager, and CeeDee Lamb is elite. The Cowboys also rank 9th in the NFL in sack rate allowed, so their offensive line has also done its job. If Jalen Hurts is healthy and the Eagles can move the ball, I think you can trust the Eagles as a floor play in deeper leagues. However, only one player in the NFL has made it back from a concussion to play within the same week, so I think the odds are stacked against him playing, which is why I have them ranked where I do.
Prior to losing Alvin Kamara to injury, the Saints continued to hang tough in games with essentially no offensive players. His injury was the straw that broke the camel’s back because this offense was abysmal on Monday night and that also meant that the defense had no chance to put together a solid game. Over the last six weeks, the Saints defense ranks 7th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate and 9th in pass rush productivity rate, so they have been playing solid enough defense, and a matchup with Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders is far easier than Jordan Love and the Packers. Las Vegas is not a smash spot with O’Connell under center, but they’re a plus matchup, and the Saints have been playing solid defense of late, so I’m comfortable trusting them this week if you’re in a deep format.
On the other hand, the Raiders look to be in a great spot if Alvin Kamara can’t play because this Saints offense was atrocious on Monday. If Kamara does come back, I would not play the Raiders because they were not a good unit to begin with and now are without Maxx Crosby. That means you need a standby defense ready to pivot to if you’re planning to play Las Vegas in the fantasy finals.
Despite playing tons of close games all season, the Chiefs offense is stepping up of late and is allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. This game is also being played on a short week, which usually leads to weird outcomes. We know the Steelers are a good defense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 3rd in pass rush productivity rate, 8th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game over the last six weeks, so I feel good about their floor, but I just don’t love this matchup.
The Ravens have been playing better defense of late and rank 3rd in EPA per play, 6th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 11th in pass rush productivity rate, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate over the last six weeks. The Texans haven’t been a great matchup of late, but they just lost Tank Dell for the season and have so few options in the receiving game behind Nico Collins. Their offensive line has been an issue for much of the season, so that could come back to bite them against a Ravens defense that has a lot to play for and has been playing better lately.
The Falcons and Bengals are two defenses that the BOD model likes because of how well they have performed over the last six weeks, but I think much of that has to do with a really easy schedule. Over the last six weeks, the Bengals rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate and 7th in EPA per play while the Falcons rank 6th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate and 10th in the NFL in turnover rate, so their play on the field is fine but not elite since those are the only two categories any of them rank inside the top 10 in. However, a few huge games against poor offenses mean that the Bengals are averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and the Falcons are averaging 10.6. Considering neither of them is in a plus matchup right now, it’s hard to feel super confident rolling them out for the fantasy finals, but I could see doing it in deeper formats.
Rank
Tier Four DSTs
BOD
RANKING
19
Minnesota Vikings
vs GB
6
20
Cleveland Browns
vs MIA
7
21
Tennessee Titans
at JAX
17
22
Houston Texans
vs BAL
3
23
Detroit Lions
at SF
9
24
Los Angeles Rams
vs ARI
18
25
Chicago Bears
vs SEA
25
The Texans, Packers, and Vikings are all defenses that I like, but I don’t think any of them are playable in the fantasy football finals given the matchups they have.
Over the last six weeks, the Browns rank 7th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 8th in pass rush productivity rate, and 1st in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, so they’ve been a solid unit. However, this Dolphins offense, even when it’s not clicking, gives up the 13th-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses over the last month, so I don’t love the matchup here, and the Browns offense will likely continue to put the defense in bad spots so I’d rather avoid them during the fantasy football finals.
The Titans have averaged just 4.7 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, which is not enticing, but they do rank 3rd in tackles for a loss or no gain per game and 7th in the NFL in turnover rate over that span and take on a Jaguars team that allows the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars’ defense has been even worse, but the Titans have been a plus matchup all season, even if Mason Rudolph is under center. Tony Pollard is playing through an injury, and the Titans lost another starting offensive lineman last week, but I simply can’t trust the Jaguars’ defense with my fantasy season on the line. The Jaguars lost both starting tackles on Sunday, so we need to keep an eye on those practice reports because that could push the Titans up even higher in the rankings
At this moment, I can’t see playing the Rams against the Cardinals since this Rams defense has slipped of late and is averaging just 5.3 fantasy points per game. However, the Cardinals lost James Conner and starting offensive tackle Jonah Williams to injuries on Sunday, so if neither of those guys can play on Sunday, we may move the Rams up a bit more.
Rank
Tier Five DSTs
BOD
RANKING
26
Jacksonville Jaguars
vs TEN
32
27
New York Giants
vs IND
29
28
New England Patriots
vs LAC
27
29
Carolina Panthers
at TB
26
30
Arizona Cardinals
at LAR
21
31
San Francisco 49ers
vs DET
22
32
New York Jets
at BUF
31
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
