The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Tuesday, Dec. 24 with South Florida and San Jose State meeting in the Hawaii Bowl. This game takes place at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii. This is the second matchup between the Bulls and Spartans on the gridiron. South Florida won 42-22 in ’17.
Despite losing quarterback Byrum Brown to injury early in the ’24 season, South Florida overcame a 2-4 start to reach bowl eligibility for the second year in a row under coach Alex Golesh. The Bulls won four out of their last six games to hit six victories, including a 63-30 blowout of Tulsa.
Expectations were low for San Jose State in ’24 with the arrival of new coach Ken Niumatalolo and a significant staff and roster overhaul. But the Spartans surprised with a 3-0 start and picked up key victories against Oregon State and Stanford to finish 7-5.
San Jose State is 5-6 in 11 previous bowl trips. The Spartans lost 24-14 to Coastal Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl. South Florida is 7-4 in its bowl history, including a 45-0 blowout win against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl last year.
South Florida vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 24 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: San Jose State – 3.5
Over/Under: 62.5
Announcers: Tiffany Greene, Jay Walker, and Marilyn Payne
Why South Florida Will Win
Uncertainty surrounds South Florida’s quarterback situation for Tuesday night. Starter Byrum Brown has been out since late September but is healthier than any point since that injury and is potentially on track for a return. If Brown can’t go, Bryce Archie (1,679 passing yards and nine touchdowns) would get the start.
Regardless of whichever quarterback starts, San Jose State should expect to see a heavy workload from the ground attack. Running back Kelley Joiner (766 yards), Nay’Quan Wright (494), and Ta’Ron Keith (414) lead a backfield that averages 190.6 yards a game. The Spartans were vulnerable at times on the ground (155.4 yards a game allowed) in the regular season but did excel at creating negative plays with 86 tackles for a loss.
With San Jose State down its top two cornerbacks due to transfer, Brown or Archie should have opportunities to attack downfield to receivers Sean Atkins (68 catches), Michael Brown-Stephens (28), or Keshaun Singleton (22).
South Florida’s defense took a step forward in ’24, limiting AAC opponents to 5.8 yards a play and 28.6 points a contest. Although Golesh’s secondary ranked 80th nationally in success rate against the pass, San Jose State won’t have its best weapon (Nash) to make the high-powered aerial assault a little easier to defend.
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Why San Jose State Will Win
The Spartans bring the Mountain West’s No. 1 passing offense (325.3 yards a game) to Honolulu. Receiver Nick Nash (104 catches) opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, but quarterback Walker Eget (2,224 yards and 11 TDs) still returns receivers Justin Lockhart (52 catches), TreyShun Hurry (24), and Matthew Coleman (22), and tight end Jackson Canaan (23).
Even with one of the nation’s top receivers out of this game, Eget and the rest of San Jose State’s weapons can move the ball through the air against a South Florida defense that ranked 11th in the American Athletic Conference in pass efficiency defense.
Running back Floyd Chalk IV (661 yards) won’t see many carries (averaging 11.6 a game) but is capable of finding plenty of room against a Bulls’ defense giving up 157.9 yards a contest.
San Jose State’s defense ranked as one of the best in the Mountain West in the regular season, holding teams to 5.1 yards a snap and forcing 27 turnovers. Coordinator Derrick Odum will have to overcome the loss of two starters on Tuesday night, as cornerbacks DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby hit the portal.
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Final Analysis
The last two teams to win the Hawaii Bowl didn’t score more than 25 points. Expect a higher-scoring matchup this time around, as both South Florida and San Jose State give up over 26 points a contest and are capable of producing fireworks on offense. Nash’s decision to opt out is a huge setback for the Spartans’ passing game. However, question marks also remain with the Bulls. Will Brown return to the lineup? On paper, these two teams are evenly matched. And the personnel uncertainty only adds to the toss-up feeling going into Dec. 24.
Prediction: San Jose State 31, South Florida 30
