Our experts have NFL predictions on the spread and total for each game on Christmas.
The AFC is having a miniature round-robin tournament over the past five days with four of its contenders. After the Chiefs beat the Texans and Ravens beat the Steelers, the teams have switched it up. On Christmas, the Chiefs travel to face the Steelers and the Ravens head to Houston for a matchup with the Texans.
We may get a playoff preview with one of these four games, with the Texans and Ravens currently matched up as the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the AFC.
NFL Predictions: Christmas Doubleheader
We’re betting a pair of underdogs on Wednesday, courtesy of John LanFranca, and Billy Ward has split his picks on the total up with one on each side.
The Chiefs are three-point favorites on the road against the Steelers, who lost by 17 points in Baltimore on Saturday. The Ravens are laying 5.5 points on the road to the Texans, who lost to the Chiefs. That spread opened last weekend at Ravens -2.5, but there has been a lot of action on Baltimore, which caused a significant move to 5.5.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Picks
Against the Spread
John LanFranca: Backing the Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers as an underdog has failed to cash in each of the last two weeks, but this week is another chance for them to get that right.
Under Tomlin, the Steelers have been underdogs eight times following a two-game losing streak, going 5-3 (62.5%) against the spread in those situations and 2-1 against the number at home following a two-game losing streak.
George Pickens is set to return after being left off of the final injury report. Russell Wilson averages just 6.3 yards per attempt when Pickens is not in the lineup, but that number increases dramatically when Pickens is on the field to 8.8.
Creating explosive plays against an aggressive Chiefs defense will come much easier with a playmaker like Pickens on the field. Nearly 50% of all air yards for the Pittsburgh passing attack this season have been by way of targets headed in his direction. Kansas City plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, so it’s fair to expect Wilson to launch a few deep shots down the field when the right look presents itself.
The other factor that could play a major role in the Steelers pulling the upset is their ability to pressure Patrick Mahomes. His passer rating is 69.7 under pressure this season, and the Steelers boast the sixth-best pass rush win rate according to ESPN. With Alex Highsmith back in the fold, they should be able to cause problems for a Chiefs’ offensive line already in turmoil.
I’d play the Steelers +3 up to -120 or at +2.5 at -110 or better.
Over/Under
Billy Ward: The Steelers offense matches up pretty poorly here. They rely heavily on the run and have a bottom-six Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Kansas City is somewhat of a pass-funnel defense with a top-10 DVOA ranking against the run.
If Pittsburgh can’t push the scoring here, it’s hard to see the Chiefs handling it themselves. Kansas City has scored more than 30 points just twice this season, and both of those tallies were in games in which the opponent kept it within one score.
While I expect Kansas City to find success on offense, Pittsburgh is still a top-10 overall defense.
On top of that, both teams rank inside of the top 10 in time of possession, so there will be about 3 minutes of game time “lost” compared to their typical games.
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Ravens vs. Texans Picks
Against the Spread
John LanFranca: The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites on the road in Houston on Christmas Day, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this line move to 6 in a few places considering we just saw both favorites come through this past Saturday in games involving these same four teams. Keep a close eye on this line throughout the day.
Derrick Henry gashed the Steelers last week, but he will have a much tougher time in this game. Houston ranks second in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush, and they stuff runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 19% of attempts. Making sure Henry cannot begin to gain momentum downhill is the key to slowing him down, and this is something the Texans have proven they can accomplish.
We have witnessed some stellar performances by the Texans front seven inside of NRG Stadium this season. Houston limited Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to just 3.3 yards per rush on 31 attempts back in week 10. De’Von Achane averaged just 3.4 yards per carry against Houston in Week 12, and even the Bills running backs couldn’t muster 100 yards on the ground on 23 carries earlier in the season.
This is a long way of saying the Texans should be able to hold up on early downs in order to get pressure on Lamar Jackson in obvious passing situations. The Texans have the best pass rush win rate in the NFL and boast the second-best adjusted sack rate. They absolutely have the ability to create drive-killing negative plays against Baltimore.
If C.J. Stroud can take advantage of a leaky Ravens pass defense, I believe Houston can pull the outright upset. I’m going to stay on high alert when playing this game because I believe a +6 could show up at some point before kickoff, but I’m comfortable playing the Texans down to +5.
Over/Under
Billy Ward: It’s hard to know what to make of the Texans offense here. On the one hand, everybody throws against Baltimore, which has allowed the second-most passing yards in the league and by far the highest PROE against.
However, the Texans lost Tank Dell last week, leaving just Nico Collins among their original top three wide receivers to start the season. Stroud had a rough go of it through the air without Dell last week, with Houston scoring just 19 points in Kansas City
Still, an in-game injury is a bit different than knowing you’ll be without key pieces. While it’s a short week, the Texans have at least some time to prepare other players to fill in for their passing attack.
On the Baltimore side, they’ve topped 30 points in three of their past four games, including against tough defenses like the Steelers and Chargers. The Texans defense is on par with those teams (if not better) but I’m not sure it matters when you have both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
That means we should clear this over as long as the Houston offense can keep pace, which I expect them to do. They still have Collins, tight end Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon, which is enough firepower in this matchup.
