The Tennessee Titans have had a rough 2024 season, but it has potentially left them in a position to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Titans entered Sunday of Week 17 as one of five teams with three wins, narrowly behind the New York Giants, who have just two. Still, things could change dramatically over the final two weeks.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios for the Titans to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
UPDATE: The Giants have won, moving to three wins and sliding to fifth in the NFL Draft order at the end of the 1 p.m. slate. The Jaguars have also won in Week 17 and moved to four wins. We will update the article below once all 1 p.m. games are finished.
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What Are the Tennessee Titans Scenarios for the No. 1 Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Before anything else can happen in terms of the Titans getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, they need the Giants to win one more game. The first pick always goes to the team with the lowest winning percentage, and thus, the Giants cannot lose that spot if they do not add to their two wins this season.
However, if New York does win another game in these final two weeks, then the situation changes considerably.
If two teams are tied on winning percentage, the first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (SOS), with the team with the lowest SOS picking higher. That is why the Giants’ grip on the first pick is relatively weak. Their SOS is the second-highest in the league at 0.556 and higher than all the other two and three-win teams entering Sunday of Week 17.
The Titans are currently fourth in the NFL Draft order, behind the Giants, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee’s 0.510 SOS is behind the Patriots’ (0.466) and Jaguars (0.475). They face the Jaguars in Week 17, so their SOS is irrelevant, but the Titans need a fairly big swing with the Patriots if they are to have a lower SOS at the end of the season.
However, for that to matter, the Titans have to lose both of their remaining games in 2024. It’s extremely unlikely that they can pick first overall if they get to four wins. They would then need the Giants, Patriots, Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders to get to four wins.
Tennessee would then also need the Patriots’ and Jaguars’ SOS to be higher than theirs because New England cannot finish with more than four wins this season.
The SOS situation for the Titans will become clearer after Week 17, but if they are both on three wins and the Giants are also on three wins, New England would be favorites to pick No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Both the Patriots and Titans could play against backups in Week 18, with the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans potentially locked into their playoff seedings and resting players.
