This story has been updated with new information
The “Dirty Birds” hope to soar to a postseason spot in 2024.
Will the Falcons be successful in their quest to extend their season or will their wings be clipped with a rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., under center?
Atlanta has spiraled for a good portion of the season, plagued by an aging Kirk Cousins, who hasn’t regained his footing following an Achilles injury last year. Eventually benched for Penix, the Falcons remain one of the NFL’s biggest mysteries.
They have a talented offense but are an average unit. Despite their issues, they are two weeks away from possibly making the postseason in 2024.
NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.
Here’s a look at how the Falcons can go dancing, NFL style, in 2024.
Falcons playoff chances
The Falcons have a 12% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That puts them behind the division rival Buccaneers, who enter Week 18 with an 88% chance of making the playoffs and winning the NFC South.
Falcons playoff odds
Before Week 17, the models projected Atlanta as postseason underdogs, but BetMGM says otherwise. They listed the Falcons as -140 favorites to win the NFC South, probably largely thanks to their tiebreaker advantage over Tampa. Those odds translate to a 58.3% implied probability, creating some value on the Buccaneers at +115 considering how the models view them.
The Falcons’ only path to the playoffs is by winning the division. They lost control of their own destiny after their loss against the Commanders on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 17.
What needs to happen for Falcons to make playoffs?
The Falcons no longer control their own destiny but their goal is straightforward in Week 18. With the Falcons’ loss in Week 17 and the Bucs win over the Panthers, Atlanta handed control of the division back to Tampa Bay with one week to go. Here’s how Atlanta can get to the playoffs in Week 18:
The Falcons cannot make the playoffs as a wild card team.
Falcons remaining schedule
Atlanta’s loss to Washington on “Sunday Night Football” puts it one game behind Tampa Bay. The Falcons must win, and the Buccaneers must lose in Week 18 to win the NFC South.
Here’s how the Falcons schedule lines up:
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
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Buccaneers remaining schedule
The Buccaneers took care of business against the Panthers and now find another winnable matchup at home to close the regular season. They’ll welcome the Saints to town in Week 18, which is a group ravaged by injuries.
Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
Falcons potential playoff opponents
The Falcons can only be the No. 4 seed in the 2024 NFL playoffs. That leaves them with a few possible opponents for the postseason, depending on how the results shake out. Here’s who they could face:
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NFL playoff picture Week 17
AFC
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).
NFC
In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.
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