One more week of the 2024 NFL regular season, then the overreactions count for real.
Even though a lot was decided before Week 17 even kicked off, the penultimate week of the season left us with plenty to pay attention to heading into Week 18. Whether it’s the last few playoff spots, draft position, players/coaches with a lot at stake or final postseason seeding, a fair number of things remain unknown. But then things start to get settled, and we start to find out what was or was not an overreaction all along. And that’s what’s fun about this time of year.
So let’s get to Week 17 overreactions, where we judge a few potential Week 17 takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
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Chiefs should avoid the Bengals?
Ravens better off as wild-card team?
Giants just blew their best chance to improve?
Chargers’ Harbaugh was this year’s best hire?
Vikings are the NFC’s best team?
The Chiefs should lose to the Broncos next week to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs
Kansas City’s Christmas Day victory over the Steelers clinched the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs, meaning the Chiefs will have a first-round bye and home games until the Super Bowl. There is absolutely nothing that can happen next week that would change that in any way. If coach Andy Reid is so inclined, he can sit Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and any of his veteran stars against Denver. It’s possible he decides to play his guys so they don’t end up having too much time off, but he doesn’t need them on the field for any playoff-race reasoning. By winning 15 of their first 16 games, the Chiefs have earned the right to take the 17th matchup off.
The Broncos sure would appreciate it if they did, because their loss to the Bengals on Saturday prevented them from clinching a playoff spot in Week 17 and left Cincinnati alive in the postseason race. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and the Dolphins lose to the Jets, then the Bengals would be in the playoffs and the Broncos would be out.
The only two quarterbacks to whom Mahomes has ever lost a playoff game are Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. And while the AFC Championship Game loss to Burrow and the Bengals happened three years ago, Cincinnati has consistently given the Chiefs a tough time in head-to-head matchups, be it during the regular season or playoffs. Since Burrow was drafted in 2020, Mahomes is 3-3 against the Bengals.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Again, the Chiefs can do whatever they want to do. And if I had to guess, I’d say Mahomes plays a quarter or two at most in Denver next weekend. But that’s only because Reid would be deciding he needed the rest or that it’s better to avoid injury risk in a meaningless game. The Chiefs definitely should not lie down in this game just to keep the Bengals out.
First of all, the Broncos came close to beating the Chiefs in their first meeting this season in Kansas City, so it’s not as if they’re some kind of pushover. Second of all, though it’s true that Burrow is playing at an MVP level and the Cincinnati offense would be as dangerous as any if the Bengals got to the postseason, I seriously doubt the Chiefs or anyone else would turn down a chance to play the Bengals’ defense. The Chiefs aren’t afraid of anyone, and they should focus on making sure they’re as ready as possible for the divisional round of the playoffs. Concerning themselves with who gets the No. 7 seed in a conference in which they’re almost always the No. 1 seed is kind of beneath them.
The Ravens would be better off as a wild-card team than AFC North champions
Baltimore has caught and passed Pittsburgh in the division race, meaning the Ravens will be division champs if they beat the Browns or the Steelers lose to the Bengals next week. If the Ravens lose to Cleveland and the Steelers beat Cincinnati, then Pittsburgh would be the AFC North champs and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. The Ravens would in turn be the No. 5 seed as a wild-card team.
In that scenario, it appears the Steelers would get a first-round home game against the Chargers, and the Ravens would have to play on the road against the Texans. The Ravens just beat that same Texans team 31-2 on Christmas Day. (They also beat the Chargers in a much more competitive Monday night game in Los Angeles in Week 12.)
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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Houston is leaking oil right now and could be as vulnerable as any team — at home or on the road — in the wild-card round of the playoffs. A loss next week in Tennessee (which is possible, since the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed and could rest their starters), and we’re looking at a 9-8 AFC South champ coming off three straight losses (and four in its past six). The Texans’ only win against a team with a winning record all season came in Week 5 against the Bills. They also are missing two of their top three receivers in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and their offense is sputtering.
The Chargers, meanwhile, just got top running back (and former Raven!) J.K. Dobbins back and are riding some seriously positive vibes into the postseason. Whichever team — Baltimore or Pittsburgh — ends up not winning the division could be getting a really nice first-round consolation prize with a matchup against Houston.
The Giants just made their biggest mistake of the season by beating the Colts
Yeah, where did that come from? Drew Lock threw four touchdown passes and ran for another score. Malik Nabers had 171 yards receiving and two touchdowns on seven catches. And the Giants beat the Colts 45-33, knocking Indy out of the playoffs and knocking themselves out of the No. 1 draft-pick slot — at least for the time being.
The Giants are currently projected to pick fourth in the draft, behind the Patriots, Browns and Titans. Giants fans might have preferred their team lose its final two games to secure that top draft pick, allowing New York a shot at its top quarterback of choice in the draft. Now, it’s suddenly possible the Giants could be picking fourth — or even later — in a draft that appears to have only two top-level QB prospects in Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward.
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Malik Nabers breaks away for 59-yard TD
Drew Lock finds Malik Nabers, who shakes off his defender for a 59-yard touchdown to extend the Giants’ lead.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Giants can’t even lose correctly! Where did this 45-point showing come from? This is a team that hadn’t won since Week 5, hadn’t won at home all season and hadn’t scored this many points in a game since their famous 52-49 loss to the Saints in New Orleans … in 2015. This was 13 more points than they’d scored in their previous three games combined. At no other point this season have the Giants scored a total of 45 points in consecutive games.
This made no sense. And yes, if it costs the Giants a chance at drafting a QB who can get them out of this mess, then they’ll absolutely regret it. They can’t tell the players not to try to win, and I’m not suggesting they should. I’m just saying this is a win that could end up costing the franchise.
Jim Harbaugh was the best head coaching hire of the 2024 offseason
Remember when this was supposed to be the Chargers’ rebuilding year? The most talked about moves of their offseason — apart from hiring Harbaugh — were trading away Keenan Allen and cutting Mike Williams, leaving them apparently bereft of wide receivers. They had salary cap problems, and the general thought was that Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz would need a year to sort out the roster before starting to build a winner in the next offseason.
Instead, the Chargers sit at 10-6 with one game to play, and Saturday’s thumping of the Patriots clinched their spot in the postseason in Harbaugh’s first year at the helm. It’s the third time in their history the Chargers have reached the postseason after finishing in last place in their division the previous season (2004, 1992), per ESPN Research.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
To all the teams that will be hiring new coaches this offseason, this is the way. Don’t just grab for the hot coordinator; find yourself a head coach — a culture-builder who can implement, articulate and execute a clear vision for the organization and get everyone to buy in. Everybody knew Harbaugh was that. He has done it literally everywhere he has coached, including his first stint as an NFL head coach with the 49ers.
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But when you look at what he has done in a short time with the Chargers, what Sean Payton has done with the Broncos, what Dan Campbell has done with the Lions and what Dan Quinn has done with the Commanders … it’s right there for everyone to see. Teams must make sure their new coaches have qualities that result not just in wins but also a sustainable winning culture. And that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t hire Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn — just that they shouldn’t hire them solely because of their offensive or defensive schemes. Either or both of those guys could be head coach material.
Sean McVay, for instance, hasn’t had his success with the Rams simply because he’s a brilliant offensive play designer and playcaller. He has succeeded because he immediately became the central voice in the building and the guy to whom everyone looked to set the tone. Harbaugh is clearly that guy for the Chargers, and it’s paying off much earlier than expected for Los Angeles. Find a great leader, not just a great playcaller, and you too can see your franchise turn around before you know it.
The NFC’s best team has been hiding in plain sight all season — in Minnesota
The Vikings beat the Packers on Sunday to improve to 14-2 this season. That’s currently the best record in the NFC, pending 13-2 Detroit’s Monday night game against San Francisco. Regardless of the outcome of that game, next week’s Vikings-Lions game in Detroit will determine the NFC North champion and the top seed in the NFC playoff field. If the Vikings win that game, they earn a bye and home games throughout the NFC playoffs.
Maybe it’s because the Lions were in the NFC Championship Game last season while the Vikings missed the playoffs. Maybe it’s because the Lions started out this season hot, and we had our eyes on the Packers as their top challenger. But either way, it feels as if the Vikings have been sneaking up on us. They’ve won their past nine games in a row, and their only losses this season are a two-point home loss to the Lions and a 10-point loss to the Rams in Los Angeles.
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Jefferson’s spectacular catch wiped away with penalty
Justin Jefferson reaches out and snags the catch with one hand, but a holding call nullifies the play.
Verdict: OVERREACTION … FOR NOW
If the Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit next week, yes, go ahead. They will have stamped themselves as the best team in the NFC, and there should be no debate. But the Lions have looked like the best team in the NFC — heck, the entire league — all season, despite their rash of defensive injuries. The Eagles also just won a game in which Tanner McKee played quarterback, so it’s fair to think they’re also pretty good. These are three heavyweights, any of which could make it to the Super Bowl without any surprise.
The Vikings deserve our respect. They are considerably better than most of us expected, and there is little doubt they’ve gone under the radar in true contender status all season. They have work to do before we can call them the NFC’s best team, but they’ve reached the point where that work consists of only one game. The finale in Detroit is their opportunity to prove it all and leave no doubt.
