Unless I get out of the gate hot, betting regular-season MLB won’t be a daily activity. Between the platoon pitching and all the strikeouts and home runs, baseball is just too random. I don’t have the patience, fortitude, or bankroll to bet MLB regularly.
Regardless, Thursday is Opening Day, and I’m not going to not bet MLB Opening Day. I’ll try to make a few MLB bets per week for you to fade or tail. Based on what I’ve done in recent MLB seasons, I’d recommend the latter. With that in mind, let’s discuss who I bet for Opening Day.
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MLB Opening Day 2025 Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing.
- Miami Marlins moneyline (+124) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates via FanDuel, risking 1 unit (u).
- Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-106) vs. San Francisco Giants via FanDuel, risking 1.06u
- Cleveland Guardians moneyline (+140) vs. Kansas City Royals via DraftKings, risking 1u.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh RHP Paul Skenes is the Opening Day betting favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young after winning Rookie of the Year last season. He’s one of the most popular pitchers in baseball, with rookie cards fetching $1+ million in auctions. He is also dating a smokeshow, Olivia Dunne. There is literally nothing bad to say about him.
However, besides Skenes, the Pirates are bad, and I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Marlins RHP Sandy Alcántara, who regressed in 2023 after winning the NL Cy Young the year before. Alcántara missed last season after having Tommy John surgery, but he is good to go for Opening Day.
The Sandman was dialed in during Spring Training. He didn’t allow a single run across 12.1 innings pitched, striking out 10 batters and only walking three. Alcántara is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. The Dominican is a two-time NL All-Star with a career 3.32 ERA and 3.77 Fielding Independent Pitching (“FIP”).
Ultimately, I don’t think Miami should be a home underdog with Alcántara on the bump to a team also projected to finish last in their division. The Marlins’ bullpen was third in WAR, ninth in FIP, and 10th in K-BB% after the All-Star game last year, per FanGraphs. Pittsburgh’s bullpen was 26th in K-BB%, 22nd in FIP, and 19th in WAR over that span.
Relief pitching is more important in baseball now than starting pitching. I know everyone is glazing Skenes, and rightfully so. Yet, the starting pitching duel is a draw, Miami has a better bullpen, and neither lineup is good. That said, give me the home ‘dog.
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Cincy was one of the most bet-on teams in the future markets because SS Elly De La Cruz is a budding superstar, and it hired three-time Manager of the Year Terry Francona this offseason. While I’m not as sold on the Reds winning the NL Central or making the playoffs as some, I do love Cincinnati ace RHP Hunter Greene.
I bet on him to win the 2025 NL Cy Young based on his potential and how he ended last season. After the 2024 MLB All-Star Game, Greene had the best Stuff+ in baseball and ranked sixth in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs. He has pitched better vs. San Francisco’s Opening Day lineup than Giants’ RHP Logan Webb against Cincy’s.
According to Statcast, Webb has a 17.7% K-BB rate, a 93.5 mph exit velocity (EV), and a .263/.300/.377 expected slash line in 85 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Reds hitters. Greene has a 32.0% K-BB rate, 87.9 mph EV, and a .162/.355/.326 in 50 PA vs. current Giants.
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Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
KC’s Opening Day starter, LHP Cole Ragans, was among the top five betting favorites to win the 2025 AL Cy Young. Last season, Ragans made his first All-Star team and finished second in Cy Young voting. He is a 26-year-old first-round pick of the 2016 MLB Draft, and pitching nerds love him.
But the Guardians, on the other hand, have much better relief pitching. Their closer, Emmanuel Clase, is a two-time Reliever of the Year. Cleveland’s two setup men, RHPs Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, are 11th and 28th, respectively, in FanGraphs’ power ratings for relievers.
We are getting a good price for the Guardians Thursday because bettors faded them in the future markets and backed the Royals. Maybe those bettors are right about their full-season projections for these clubs, but +140 for Cleveland, which has won the AL Central in two of the last three years, is too good to pass up.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.
