Jan 13, 2025, 12:30 PM ET
Only eight teams remain in the playoffs after wild-card weekend and action continues with the NFL divisional round. Four “win or go home” matchups will decide who makes the AFC and NFC championship games next week with two on Saturday and two on Sunday.
The weekend kicks off with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs facing C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Meanwhile in the NFC, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will take on rookie Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, FOX).
On Sunday afternoon, the Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a win over the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round will face the winner of the Minnesota Vikings–Los Angeles Rams game (Sunday 3 p.m. ET, NBC). The weekend concludes with MVP betting favorite Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills taking on first-team All Pro QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Here’s a look at where our team thinks you can find values in the early line before they start to move as the week goes on.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Ravens (+1) vs. Bills
Last week: Bills (-8.5) vs. Broncos. Line closed at Bills -7.5. Bills won 31-7.
I think Baltimore closes as the favorite here so let’s get our money down now. Which team has the better defense? Baltimore. Which team has the better offense? Baltimore. Which team has the better head coach? Baltimore. The “Lamar can’t win in the playoffs” narrative provides some early value here. Speaking of Jackson, you don’t think he’s looking to shut everybody up? The two-time MVP just ran the ball 15 times against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Saturday, his most rushing attempts in a game since Week 1 at Kansas City. He has more weapons and more paths to victory at his disposal than Allen.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: 6-point Teaser: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5
Last week: Ravens (-9.5) vs. Steelers. Line closed Ravens -9.5. Ravens won 28-14.
I think we have two great teaser options in the Chiefs and Commanders. It would be shocking to see Kansas City lose to the Texans at home. The Chiefs may not cover, but they always win. Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Hollywood Brown back alongside Isiah Pacheco. We only need KC to win by a field goal here, which is highly likely. On the other side, the Commanders clearly have a franchise QB in Jayden Daniels. And while Washington might not beat the Lions in Detroit, it feels like Daniels should help them keep it competitive. This should be a very fun game environment with the aggressiveness that both Dan Quinn and Dan Campbell like to play with.
Ben Solak’s first bet: Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Texans
Last week: Chargers (-3) at Texans. Line closed at Chargers -2.5. Texans won 32-12.
The Texans played an ideal game on Sunday against the Chargers: a couple of explosive passes to get on the board on offense, several big takeaways on defense and an absolutely dominant pass rush that dictated the game script for four quarters. That last one might show up again against a Chiefs team with question marks at left tackle, but the interior pass protection in Kansas City is miles better than that in Los Angeles and Mahomes has been negating pressure off the left side all year. The Chiefs return Jaylen Watson to the starting lineup on defense and should have plenty of tools to keep Houston’s offense stuck in the mud.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Texans (+8.5) vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs play close games. They win, but the games are typically competitive, defensive affairs. Only four of the Chiefs 15 wins this season were by more than eight points. The combined records of the losing teams in those lopsided contests are 24-44. The Chiefs have not covered a spread this large all season; they are 7-0 outright but 0-7 against the spread when laying at least six points this season, per ESPN Research). They are also coming off a multi-week layoff, with a bye in the wild-card round after sitting their starters in Week 18. The Texans looked as sharp as they’ve looked all season against the Chargers last Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight points when they met in Week 16 and should be favored to win, but 8.5 points is too many for me against a Chiefs team that seems to love winning on the last possession of almost every game.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Commanders (+8.5) vs. Lions
Last week: Rams (+2.5) vs. Vikings.
The Commanders displayed both grit and precision in their thrilling 23-20 win over Tampa Bay, with rookie QB Jayden Daniels orchestrating a poised game-winning drive. The Commanders have become masters of the nail-biter this season, boasting six victories when tied or trailing in the final moments. Daniels’ rapid development and the team’s uncanny ability to deliver under pressure solidify their status as a dangerous underdog. Facing a powerhouse Detroit squad, Washington’s momentum and knack for clutch performances make them a compelling pick to cover the spread. With their late-game magic, they could make things interesting once again.
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