The last time the Nuggets and Clippers met in the playoffs was in 2020, when the Nuggets rallied from a 3-1 series deficit.
It took an extra five minutes in Game 82, but the LA Clippers earned their spot in the playoffs with an impressive 18-3 finish to the season. The Denver Nuggets didn’t close quite as strong, but also got a win on the final day to earn the No. 4 seed in a tough Western Conference. These have been the two best regular-season teams in the West over the last eight years, and they’ll meet in the playoffs for the third time.
It’s a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Nuggets have a top-five offense, while the Clippers have a top-five defense. They split the season series, with three of the four games having come in Denver, where the first round will open this weekend.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Nuggets vs. Clippers series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Clippers vs. Nuggets, TBA
- Game 2: Clippers vs. Nuggets, TBA
- Game 3: Nuggets vs. Clippers, TBA
- Game 4: Nuggets vs. Clippers, TBA
- Game 5: Clippers vs. Nuggets, TBA*
- Game 6: Nuggets vs. Clippers, TBA*
- Game 7: Clippers vs. Nuggets, TBA*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
David Adelman’s time in the spotlight. The Nuggets made an unprecedented move last Tuesday, firing general manager Calvin Booth and head coach Michael Malone with just three games left in the season.
So they’re seemingly a team in transition, though they still have the best player in the world, who gives them a chance to beat any team on any given night. And with the departure of Malone, it’s on interim head coach David Adelman to push the right buttons over the next two weeks (or longer).
How do you defend James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell? How much should Russell Westbrook play? Who’s on the floor when Nikola Jokić isn’t? Those are Adelman’s decisions now, and the answers will help determine if the Nuggets advance to the conference semifinals for the sixth time in the last seven years.
Keep your eyes on
Kawhi Leonard, fresh and efficient. The Clippers had a great defense all season, but they had the league’s No. 1 offense over their last 21 games, and that offense was at its best (123.6 points scored per 100 possessions) with Leonard on the floor.
He missed the first 34 games, but Leonard played in 21 of the last 25 and looked as strong as he had all year in the Clippers’ overtime win at Golden State on Sunday while scoring 33 points on 13-for-20 shooting. He’s been an incredible postseason performer in the past, averaging 29.3 points on a true shooting percentage of 63.3% over 60 playoff games from 2017-2020.
Leonard didn’t play in any of the four regular-season games against the Nuggets, but we can expect Aaron Gordon to be his primary defender in this series. The Clippers’ offensive game plan will likely start with getting a lesser defender switched onto their best player.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Denver: Jokić’s minutes off the floor. For the fourth straight season, the Nuggets’ center led the league in on-off differential, with the Nuggets having been 19.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-10.5) than they were with him off the floor (minus-9.3).
The three-time Kia MVP’s minutes will obviously be extended in the playoffs, but he can’t play all 48, and the pressure will be on the other Nuggets to keep the team afloat when Jokić sits. The good news is that Clippers center Ivica Zubac had the league’s fourth biggest on-off differential, with LA having been 12.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than off.
For LA: Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. open beyond the arc. Dunn and Jones are big reasons why the Clippers had the league’s third-ranked defense. But the playoffs are when bad (or just average) shooters get ignored, and the Nuggets, who defend pick-and-rolls relatively aggressively, will allow open 3s on the weak side of the floor.
The Clippers will do their best to have Norman Powell spaced as the weak-side shooter more often than not, but we can be sure that both Dunn and Jones will often be left alone beyond the arc. Their ability to knock open shots down will allow LA to play its best defensive lineups and could determine a game or two.
1 key number to know
9.8 – The Clippers were, statistically, the league’s third-best home team, outscoring their opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions at the Intuit Dome. They won 13 of their last 14 home games, with the only loss coming to the Oklahoma City Thunder by two points.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, weren’t nearly as dominant at home (plus-5.4 per 100) as they were the last two seasons (plus-9.6 and plus-10.1). They had the league’s 22nd-ranked home defense, and they might have a hard time recovering if they drop one of the first two games.
The pick
Clippers in six. As a rule, postseason success correlates more to how a team plays early in the regular season than it does to how a team plays late. But the Clippers have obviously been a much different team with since Leonard got healthy and found his rhythm. Jokić is still the best player in this series, but LA is the team that has proven that it can play at an elite level on both ends of the floor.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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