The St. John’s Red Storm take on the Providence Friars in Providence, RI. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
St John’s is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -280. The total is set at 142 points.
Here are my St. John’s vs. Providence predictions and college basketball picks for December 20, 2024.
St. John’s vs Providence Odds, Spread, Pick
Friday, Dec. 20
8 p.m. ET
FOX
St. John’s OddsSpreadTotal PointsMoneyline-6
-110
142
-110 / -110
-280
Providence OddsSpreadTotal PointsMoneyline+6
-110
142
-110 / -110
+230
- St. John’s vs Providence spread: St. John’s -6.5
- St. John’s vs Providence over/under: 142 points
- St. John’s vs Providence moneyline: St. John’s -280, Providence +230
- St. John’s vs Providence best bet: Providence +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
My St. John’s vs Providence best bet is on the Friars spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
My St. John’s vs Providence College Basketball Betting Preview
St. John’s Basketball
Doubting a Rick Pitino-coached team isn’t for everybody.
This year’s Red Storm team fits what Pitino wants to do — St. John’s ranks No. 12 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and forces turnovers on 20% of its possessions. Pitino was clearly displeased by St. John’s defense last year, so he prioritized adding athletes with length.
If St. John’s wants a comfortable road cover, the best path is to amp up the pressure and force Providence’s ball-handlers into live-ball turnovers (the Friars give the ball away 18% of the time).
The two best players for the Johnnies have been versatile forward RJ Luis Jr. and big man Zuby Ejiofor. It was safe to tab Deivon Smith and Kadary Richmond as options No. 1 and No. 2, but the two returnees — Luis and Ejiofor — have dominated.
Luis is the top scorer for Coach Pitino at 17 points per game, but Richmond had his best game in Queens, scoring 18 points in the win over DePaul. If Richmond can re-gain the form he used to lead Seton Hall to an NIT title last year, it will make St. John’s an even scarier team.
I still don’t fully buy into St. John’s offense in a half-court setting. The Red Storm just don’t have shooting and struggle greatly in catch-and-shoot situations (0.95 PPP).
Simeon Wilcher and the speedy Smith are the only Johnnies who shoot better than 37% from 3, and I don’t think defenses are afraid of Smith’s jump shots. The grouping of Luis, Aaron Scott, Ejiofor and Richmond leads to teams playing zone or sagging off.
You need to be able to shoot to quiet the intense road crowd at the AMP, and Providence is a vastly better shooting team.
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Providence Basketball
A scary Big East home court advantage is the AMP, formerly known as the Dunk, which Providence calls home.
Just ask BYU, which went into the AMP as 4.5-point favorites and left with a 20+ point loss.
Of course, the biggest swing in this game is whether star forward Bryce Hopkins plays or not. He missed the Friars’ last game — a loss versus St. Bonaventure. Hopkins has played in three games this year as he recovers from a torn ACL, and the Friars are 2-1 with him in the lineup.
Providence will be fine defensively if Hopkins doesn’t play. Kim English has a defensive coaching DNA, so he will get the most out of his players either way.
I’m surprised the Friars’ defense ranks just 68th in defensive efficiency. They hold opponents to just 43.8% on 2s and 30.4% on 3s, which should lead to a much better efficiency numbers.
The downfall is how often Providence sends teams to the foul line, as it ranks 217th in KenPom’s FGA/FTA metric. The Bonnies were able to exploit that problem, attempting 28 freebies. I’m banking on brighter days coming for Providence’s defense, and the crowd should provide infectious energy to feed off of.
Where potentially missing Hopkins hurts is offensively. Providence is a much better team on that end of the floor if Hopkins is playing, as we saw in Providence’s 83-point effort in Hopkins’ initial return. The 6-foot-7 senior is the safety blanket for Coach English — a guy you can give the ball to and expect him to make magic.
Providence needs to shoot it well from 3, given that 49% of its shots come from deep. The two primary ball-handlers — Bensley Joseph and Jayden Pierre — are the X-factors, as both have attempted 60+ 3s and covert at a decent clip.
St. John’s vs. Providence Betting Analysis
I will operate with the mindset of Providence being without Hopkins, since nothing has come out regarding his status.
I like Providence either way for a couple of reasons:
- The Friars can really cause problems for St. John’s if they limit turnovers and make this game a slog.
- The Johnnies want to push the pressure, while Providence wants a slow game in the 60-70 point range. That’s very possible if the Friars are careful handling the ball and don’t hand the Red Storm transition scoring chances.
Plus, Providence is an elite 2-point field goal defense, and St. John’s wants to get to the rim. Something has to give, so I will roll with Providence’s defense counteracting St. John’s offensive attack.
This is just laying too many points in the first Big East road game of St. John’s season.
Pick: Providence +6 (Play to +4.5)
