HOUSTON — In the end, it came down to Juan Soto.
Baseball is not explicitly designed to create this kind of drama: the magnet of the sport’s attention over the past six months, stepping to the plate for his new team in the biggest spot possible on Opening Day. It was Soto against Josh Hader, the New York Mets down two, with two on and two out in the ninth.
This was the script from last fall. Regardless of how the first seven or eight innings had gone, the Mets discovered another gear late, often against the opposing team’s most dominant relievers. Here it was, supercharged by the presence of Soto.
“If we’ve got Juan up at the end of the game,” said Clay Holmes, “everybody likes our chances.”
And after nodding at Hader’s 3-0 slider down the middle, after fouling off a heater just enough above the zone, Soto thought he knew what was about to happen.
“I’m seeing it really well,” he said. “His best pitch is his fastball, so I was sitting on the fastball.”
But baseball is a game designed on deception. And so the setup for this perfect moment, for Soto to come through and the Mets to pull out a win, proved to be misdirection.
Hader unleashed a slider that started in the zone and ended in the right-handed batter’s box. Soto, primed to attack the fastball, waved at it.
The Astros beat the Mets 3-1 on Opening Day.
“Pretty nasty pitch,” manager Carlos Mendoza said.
A nasty pitch made nastier by the context: While loading the bases with nobody out in the inning, Hader couldn’t rely on that slider. He’d yielded hits on it to Starling Marte and Tyrone Taylor. He hadn’t been able to finish off Luisangel Acuña with it and walked him. Hader saved his best, though, for the best moment.
“I think that’s why I was able to get him to swing at that slider, just because of the back and forth that we had in crunch time like that, he’s always gone to fastball,” Hader said. “Maybe he was just sitting dead red and he was selling out.”
“We all want to do something in a big spot. We all want to get the big knock,” said Soto. “He just got me in that situation.”
New York lost 3-1 on Opening Day last year as well. It’s only the second time since 1969, when they fell to 0-8 on Opening Day, that the Mets have lost consecutive season-openers. Perhaps that’s not a bad omen: The other time was in 1999-2000, years in which a loss in the NLCS preceded a pennant. The blueprint is established.
Thursday was not the blueprint the Mets want to follow over the next 161 games. Their offense was quieted by Framber Valdez and his power sinker for seven innings. They got six runners on in the eighth and ninth but brought only one home, on Francisco Lindor’s sacrifice fly. They ended the day 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.
In one way, at least, an Opening Day loss reflects the Mets’ priorities in roster-building each of the last two seasons. New York’s remarkable record on Opening Day owes so much to the historical quality of its ace starting pitchers. When you hand the ball to a Hall of Famer or a Cy Young winner, you’re likely to win, on Opening Day or any other day. (The Mets are 24-6 on Opening Day when giving the ball to Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden, Tom Glavine, Johan Santana or Jacob deGrom; they’re 17-17 with everyone else.)
After trading away a pair of Hall of Fame starters in 2023, the Mets haven’t acquired that type of ace, instead emphasizing depth. While not a bad strategy for a 162-game season — it sure looked good the second half of last year — it does set up for some potential disappointment on the first day of the season. Holmes, whose last big-league start came before deGrom had ever won a Cy Young, couldn’t quite match up with Valdez.
Making that first start since September 2018, Holmes showed glimpses of why the Mets have confidently converted him back to the role and of the growing pains incumbent with that transition. Holmes’ stuff should play as a starter: He kept the ball on the ground for much of Thursday, and Houston managed five singles off him. With just one Astros starter swinging from the left side, Holmes didn’t show off his new deliveries much — but he did generate a swing-and-miss with his new changeup to that lefty in Yordan Alvarez.
However, Holmes’ command wasn’t nearly as sharp as it had been throughout the spring. He was up in the zone more than he’d like with his sinker, and he issued four walks and hit another batter in 4 2/3 innings. Ten of the 23 Astros he faced reached base.
“The big thing is the walks,” Holmes said. “My game is limiting slug and limiting free passes. I gave them those extra free passes that gave them enough base runners to create some traffic there.”
The one-out hit batter in the second crossed home plate on a groundout. The leadoff walk in the third came home on the second of two consecutive singles. Another run scored that frame when Acuña threw wildly to first on a potential inning-ending double play.
Holmes was looking forward to the next five days before his second start. He’ll use the time to assess how he used his mix and how to better command his sinker.
The Mets were looking forward to Friday.
“One game,” Mendoza said, no doubt aware that what happens on the first day or even the first week of a season isn’t necessarily damning. “We’ve got another one tomorrow.”
(Top photo of Juan Soto: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
