Trea Turner? Kyle Schwarber?
In Game 1 of 162, it’s Turner in the leadoff spot against Nationals left-hander Mackenzie Gore.
The Phillies have been interested in seeing what their offense can look like with Turner leading off. Manager Rob Thomson has left open the possibility that Turner could lead off against lefties and Schwarber against righties.
Schwarber has led off in 83.6% of his plate appearances as a Phillie and he’s certainly performed, setting the major-league record last season in leadoff homers while also leading the National League with 106 walks. Pretty valuable skill set atop a lineup.
But there’s also some more RBI potential if Schwarber hits second, behind Turner, or fourth, behind Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. You can pretty much bank on Schwarber hitting 38-plus home runs in a healthy season, so putting that bat a spot or two after Harper’s near-.400 on-base percentage could lead to more crooked numbers.
It can’t hurt to try out a couple of variations throughout a long season to see what works best. For Turner to give the Phillies what they’d want from him in the leadoff spot, though, he needs to be able to revert to his table-setting ways.
From 2015-22, Turner hit .303 with a .356 on-base percentage. As a Phillie since, Turner has hit .279 with a .328 on-base percentage, averaging 15 fewer hits and 10 fewer walks per 162 games.
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He is still a very good player. He hit .295 with 21 homers and an .807 OPS in 121 games last season but it was his second straight year of extremes. Both years, he carried the offense at one point for 6-8 weeks with power. Both years, he also experienced prolonged cold spells. Ideally, there’s a better balance in 2025 and beyond for a shortstop signed through 2033.
Turner and the leadoff spot isn’t the only lineup focus. Perhaps more important than the structure of the one-two hitters is whether or not Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can bounce back. Stott’s batting average fell from .280 to .245 last season. He dealt with a bad elbow for most of the way which likely affected his performance — this season should give us an indication of how much. Marsh couldn’t find the same offensive rhythm he found in 2023, when he hit .277 with a .372 on-base percentage that would have ranked ninth in the National League if he wasn’t 30 mere plate appearances away from qualifying. The Phillies know that both 27-year-olds have the ability in them, it’s just a matter of them both doing it again in the same year to help supplement the offensive core.
Here is the Phils’ Opening Day lineup behind ace Zack Wheeler:
- Trea Turner, SS
- Bryce Harper, 1B (L)
- Alec Bohm, 3B
- Kyle Schwarber, DH (L)
- J.T. Realmuto, C
- Max Kepler, LF (L)
- Nick Castellanos, RF
- Bryson Stott, 2B (L)
- Brandon Marsh, CF (L)
Five left-handed hitters in the lineup against a lefty starter is an unusually high number, but the Phillies want to play Kepler every day and give Marsh more opportunities against southpaws. The other factor is the opponent himself. Gore is a talented 26-year-old starter who is only getting better, but he has reverse platoon splits, with lefties hitting .279/.377/.438 against him compared to .253/.325/.409 from righties.
