The USF Bulls (6-6, 4-4 AAC) head to Honolulu to take on the San Jose State Spartans (7-5, 3-4 Mountain West) in the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 24. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Christmas Eve and college football from Honolulu go hand in hand. The Hawaii Bowl started in 2002, as teams from the WAC and Conference USA kicked off the tradition. Fast forward more than 20 years, and San Jose State will make its second straight trip to the island after losing the 2023 game to Coastal Carolina.
Head coach Ken Niumatalolo led a successful opening campaign with the Spartans but must deal with losing a Biletnikoff finalist in star wide receiver Nick Nash.
South Florida will make its first-ever appearance in Honolulu, with the direct flight from Tampa International to Honolulu taking a little more than 12 hours.
While the logistics of the trip were important to head coach Alex Golesh, the team is treating the Hawaii Bowl as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with a business approach. The Bulls arrived on Wednesday, Dec. 18 to replicate a normal practice week.
San Jose State enters as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 63.
Let’s dive into my USF vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 24.
USF vs San Jose State Prediction
- USF vs. San Jose State Pick: USF +3
My San Jose State vs. USF best bet is on the Bulls to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs San Jose State Odds
Tuesday, Dec. 24
8 p.m. ET
ESPN
USF OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+3
-110
63
-110 / -110
+135
San Jose State OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-3
-110
63
-110 / -110
-160
- USF vs San Jose State Spread: USF +3 (-110) · San Jose State -3 (-110)
- USF vs San Jose State Over/Under: 63
- USF vs San Jose State Moneyline: USF +135 · San Jose State -160
USF vs San Jose State Preview
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview: Will Brown Return?
Two quarterbacks with differing skill sets led the Bulls this season.
Quarterback Byron Brown entered the season as one of the most explosive mobile quarterbacks in the nation suffered an injury in Week 5 against Tulane.
Bryce Archie took over as the starter against Memphis, finishing the season with an even distribution of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
Despite 22 drops from his targets this season, Archie has relied on an explosive rushing attack with Kelley Joiner and Nay’Quan Wright.
The Bulls finished the season fifth in rush explosives thanks to the duo.
Defensively, the 3-3-5 scheme had much more success against the rush than the pass. The Bulls finished 86th in Passing Success Rate allowed, standing outside the top 100 in explosives allowed.
South Florida sits in the middle of FBS teams in terms of PFF Coverage grade, but a contested catch rate rank of 28th suggests opposing quarterbacks didn’t have clear windows to targets.
Considering San Jose State’s offensive tendencies that lean toward the passing attack, the Bulls must produce pressure from a defensive front that ranked top-35 in pass rush.
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San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Life Without Nash
San Jose State went under new management from a coaching staff and scheme perspective this season.
Niumatalolo didn’t go with the familiar triple option offense that was used at Navy, allowing new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann to lean on his prior experience.
The former Washington State offensive coordinator brought the Run-and-Shoot once implemented by Nick Rolovich at Hawaii.
Quarterback Walker Eget finished the season with 18 big-time throws to just 8 turnover-worthy plays.
However, the biggest news is the loss of one of the best wide receivers in the nation in Nash — a Biletnikoff Award finalist.
Nash commanded 37% of all San Jose State targets and receptions. Now, the Spartans must make do without the most dangerous slot weapon in college football.
Wideout Justin Lockhart did haul in 97 targets for five touchdowns and an explosive 2.1 yards per route run.
San Jose State throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the country, but the 64% air attack will be looking for new weapons in the Run-and-Shoot.
San Jose State often pivoted between a three- and four-man front depending on down and distance, failing to generate a pass rush in the top 100 of FBS teams this season.
The back of the defense had middling success in opponent pass analytics despite a strength of schedule rank of 118th.
The strength of the defense came against the rush, ranking 35th in Line Yards and 30th in Stuff Rate against a schedule full of Mountain West offenses.
The Spartans struggle when it comes to stopping explosives in passing downs. San Jose State finished the season 121st in third-down defense.
USF vs San Jose State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and San Jose State match up statistically:
USF Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
Rush Success10177
Line Yards4435
Pass Success10149
Havoc5353
Finishing Drives8139
Quality Drives12371
San Jose State Offense vs. USF Defense
Rush Success10618
Line Yards13415
Pass Success2486
Havoc7425
Finishing Drives9893
Quality Drives10347
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling61115PFF Coverage8860Special Teams SP+4097Middle 88830Seconds per Play20.9 (1)23.6 (12)Rush Rate53% (78)37% (134)
USF vs San Jose State Pick & Prediction
The loss of Nash will have a major impact on a San Jose State team that was ultra-reliant on the receiver. More than 35% of passing yards and target share went to the NFL-bound talent, leaving Stutzmann to create a new passing attack against USF.
The usage of 12 personnel could come into play, as tight ends Jackson Canaan and Jacob Stewart combined for 79 targets out of the slot.
Expect Lockhart to get additional attention from USF’s nickel defense without Nash on the field. The Bulls finished top-45 in pass breakups but outside the top 100 in explosives, so the Spartans’ uptempo offense could either experience some three-and-outs or explosive scores.
Ultimately, USF’s rushing attack will find plenty of success against San Jose State using inside zone and counter. The Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country.
There are whispers that Brown may return for the Hawaii Bowl — a scenario that would further increase the Bulls’ advantage on the ground.
Look for points on the San Jose State side to come after the offense adjusts to life without Nash, which could create an opportunity for a second-half over.
Pick: USF +3 or Better
USF vs San Jose State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
Location:Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu HIDate:Tuesday, Dec. 24Kickoff Time:8 p.m. ETTV / Streaming:ESPN
USF takes on San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
USF vs San Jose State Betting Trends
USF vs San Jose State Weather
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